What the case files have in common
Six coins side by side: who held the supply on day one, how fast each one peaked, where each stood in late 2026, and a short case file to fill in before your next buy.
On this pageThree patterns1/3
Put the six stories next to each other and they stop looking like six separate dramas. They look like one question asked six times: who held the supply, and who were they going to sell it to?
CoinBONK
- Who held the supply at the start
- Half airdropped to the Solana community
- How fast it peaked
- About two years
- From the peak
- About 95% down by October 2026
Coindogwifhat (WIF)
- Who held the supply at the start
- A meme with no famous backer
- How fast it peaked
- About four months
- From the peak
- About 96% down by October 2026
CoinHAWK
- Who held the supply at the start
- About 96% in one cluster, by Bubblemaps' count
- How fast it peaked
- About 15 minutes
- From the peak
- About 98% down, by Bubblemaps' count
CoinTRUMP
- Who held the supply at the start
- 80% with two Trump-linked companies, unlocking over three years
- How fast it peaked
- Two days
- From the peak
- About 98% down by October 2026
CoinLIBRA
- Who held the supply at the start
- About 82% in one cluster within an hour, by Bubblemaps' count
- How fast it peaked
- About 40 minutes
- From the peak
- More than 99% down by October 2026
CoinThe bundled launch (made up)
- Who held the supply at the start
- 43% bought by the creator's hidden wallets
- How fast it peaked
- 25 minutes
- From the peak
- About 81% down in one sell
Three patterns
- The faster the peak, the tighter the supply. The coins that topped within minutes had one group of linked wallets holding a big share of the supply from the start. The two that lasted spread out and took months.
- Fame brings the crowd, not the protection. TRUMP, HAWK and LIBRA had the biggest names and the worst setups for ordinary buyers, because insiders held most of the supply or chose the start time.
- Even the winners fell more than 90%. BONK and WIF are the success stories, and both sit about 95% below their highs. Surviving and being a good buy at any price are different things.
Your own case file
Before you buy, answer these questions the way this track answered them for six coins. If you cannot answer one, that is an answer too.
- Who got the supply first, and how: an airdrop, a fair launch, a presale, a bundle, or companies holding it under a lock?
- What can be sold today, and what unlocks later?
- Do linked wallets hold a big share? Add them up on a bubble map.
- Who controls the liquidity pool?
- Who earns a fee on every trade?
- Is the big story confirmed by the other side?
- Where am I in the move: early, or after the crowd?
- How much can I lose on this without it hurting?
Running the file on a made-up coin
A coin named after a famous athlete shows up in your feed 20 minutes after launch, already at a $40 million market cap.
- Step 1: Supply: a bubble map shows one cluster with about 70%. That alone is a reason to stop.
- Step 2: Unlocks and pools: no vesting, and the pool was added by the creator wallet.
- Step 3: The story: the athlete's verified account has not posted it. You may be holding a copy, not the real thing.
- Step 4: Your entry: 20 minutes in and up thousands of percent, you would be the crowd, not the early buyer.
- Step 5: Verdict: skip it. If you still want in, use an amount you would be fine losing in full.
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This guide is for learning. It is not financial advice. Most memecoins go to zero and most people who trade them lose money. Only ever trade what you can afford to lose.